11
Curious Rover
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 13 · OR 75
Redcar · Watch Race Replays On racingtv.com Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 21th | 21th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Musselburgh | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 75/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 81% | +0.26 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 06/09/2026 | 21st | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |