IvyArcIvyArc
8

Kinetic Force

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 78

Redcar · Watch Race Replays On racingtv.com Handicap · 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Excuses on a couple of starts since winning off 1 lb higher at Thirsk in May. Not best away when 3½ lengths behind Accrual at Ripon last week. Respected if away on terms with Joanna Mason back aboard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 13/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 83 · 5f6y Std 132 · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 83 par13/094OR 834 @ Newmarket 20/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 81 · 6f Gd 134 · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Bath 30/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 79 · 5f10y Goo 136 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 79 par30/094OR 794 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 77 · 5f Std 127 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 77 · 5f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 77 par12/044OR 773 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 81 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 81 par31/054OR 814 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 80 · 5f3y Gd 138 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Ripon 26/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 79 · 5f Gd 137 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 79 par26/094OR 79projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Ripon47th7th0
2026-09-13Doncaster47th7th0
2026-05-31Thirsk410th10th0
2026-05-02Thirsk31st0th+1
2026-04-12Musselburgh43rd3rd0
2026-03-27Newcastle44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0927/0331/0526/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 56/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength18%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20258th28/10%22%+0.22
20/09/20259th12/137%0%-0.37
30/09/20258th11/142%30%-0.12
27/03/20264th25/10%73%+0.73
12/04/20263rd4/179%88%+0.09
02/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
31/05/202610th9/276%44%-0.33
13/09/20267th5/174%33%-0.40
26/09/20267th15/261%54%-0.07