12
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8yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 72
Redcar · Watch Race Replays On racingtv.com Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Ripon | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 50/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 13/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 26/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |