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6

Tees Spirit

8yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 7 · OR 79

Redcar · Watch Race Replays On racingtv.com Handicap · 5f

#13

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice as a novice. Largely well held in 2025 prior to shaping as if very much needing the run at Southwell on reappearance last week. Still hard to be confident that he'll capitalise on tumbling mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Dundalk 25/10/2024 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 104 · 5f Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2024 · OR 104 par25/101OR 1041 @ Southwell 22/02/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 104 · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/02/2025 · OR 104 par2 @ Ripon 26/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 102 · 5f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 102 par26/042OR 1022 @ York 15/05/2025 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 100 · 5f Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2025 · OR 100 par2 @ Epsom Downs 07/06/2025 · Pos 12th of 19 · OR 98 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 98 par7/062OR 983 @ Redcar 09/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 95 · 5f GF 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 95 par2 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 19th of 20 · OR 93 · 5f89y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/08/2025 · OR 93 par20/082OR 932 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 89 · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 89 par4 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 83 · 4f215y Std 136 · below its mark26/09/2026 · OR 83 par26/094OR 83projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Southwell49th9th0
2025-09-27Haydock210th8th+2
2025-08-20York219th17th+2
2025-08-09Redcar38th7th+1
2025-06-07Epsom Downs212th10th+2
2025-05-15York217th15th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1015/0520/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 10-13 · tight 79/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20247th28/10%50%+0.50
22/02/202510th40/10%10%+0.10
26/04/20255th15/261%33%-0.27
15/05/202517th18/15%0%-0.05
07/06/202512th22/10%39%+0.39
09/08/20258th17/255%13%-0.43
20/08/202519th66/10%5%+0.05
27/09/202510th40/10%0%0.00
26/09/20269th66/10%11%+0.11