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Ziggy's Triton

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 2 · OR 87

Redcar · Watch Race Replays On racingtv.com Handicap · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice this year, taking advantage of a drop into this grade at York in July. Back to his best when ½-length second to a lightly-raced one ahead of his mark in a similar event at Southwell last week. Leading claims to go one better in a race that should be run to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 21 · OR 91 · 5f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 91 par14/052OR 912 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 91 · 5f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 89 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 89 par6/062OR 893 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 87 · 5f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 87 par4 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 141 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 86 par10/074OR 862 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 23 · OR 89 · 5f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Newbury 15/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 88 · 5f34y GF 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 88 par15/083OR 882 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 21 · OR 88 · 5f89y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 88 par4 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 86 · 4f215y Std 139 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 86 par26/094OR 86projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Southwell42nd2nd0
2026-08-19York29th7th+2
2026-08-15Newbury310th9th+1
2026-07-28Goodwood210th8th+2
2026-07-10York41st1st0
2026-06-20Redcar37th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0520/0615/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength91%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/202615th33/10%30%+0.30
23/05/20267th28/10%60%+0.60
06/06/202611th22/10%47%+0.47
20/06/20267th6/168%25%-0.43
10/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
28/07/202610th33/10%59%+0.59
15/08/202610th15/261%18%-0.42
19/08/20269th33/10%60%+0.60
26/09/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07