4
Ballyvaughan Gig
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 108
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 78% | -0.13 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 11% | -0.68 |