Saul Elliott
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 9 · OR 97
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/06/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 13% | -0.73 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 23/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |