IvyArcIvyArc
2

Hoaxer

2yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 96

Santa Anita · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

71%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readWELL IN
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Strong hidden class form — has met tougher company than today and the bare form doesn't fully capture it. Should find this level easier. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Del Mar 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 5f 12227/08C6C1 @ Del Mar 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 99 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 99 par5/09C1OR 99projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Del Mar?4th-2th+5
2026-08-27Del Mar?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 3-3 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength70%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/08/20263rd11/486%75%-0.11
05/09/20264th11/271%57%-0.14