No Bad Beats
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 79
Santa Anita · Race 2 - Chillingworth Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-02-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Zia Park | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-04-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2025 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 08/02/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 01/03/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/04/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 11/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |