3
Our Moonlight
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 104
Santa Anita · Race 2 - Chillingworth Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲5
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-29 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-04-27 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-03-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-02-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 21/07/2025 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 9% | -0.54 |
| 11/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |