Paradise City
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 98
Santa Anita · Race 2 - Chillingworth Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-11-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/03/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 26/04/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |