1
Thermal
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 109
Santa Anita · Race 2 - Chillingworth Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲3
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-01-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-09-21 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-08-28 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 04/05/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 73% | -0.14 |
| 28/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |