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4

Free Closer

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 84

Santa Anita · Race 3 - Oak Leaf S. Presented By Oak Tree Racing Association - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 4f110y Fas 12023/05C6C5 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 96 · 6f 120 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 96 par28/06C5OR 96C5 @ Del Mar 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 84 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 84 par3/08C5OR 84C0 @ Del Mar 06/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 85 · 7f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 85 par6/09C?OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Del Mar?4th4th+0
2026-08-03Del Mar?1st6th−4
2026-06-28Churchill Downs?5th10th−4
2026-05-23Santa Anita?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0528/063/086/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 58/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
28/06/20265th9/276%43%-0.33
03/08/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
06/09/20264th10/147%63%+0.15