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2

Holmby

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 94

Santa Anita · Race 3 - Oak Leaf S. Presented By Oak Tree Racing Association - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

71%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength17%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Del Mar 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f 12218/07C6C1 @ Del Mar 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 95 par9/08C1OR 95C0 @ Del Mar 06/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 94 · 7f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 94 par6/09C?OR 94projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Del Mar?3rd3rd+0
2026-08-09Del Mar?1st1st−0
2026-07-18Del Mar?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/079/086/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
09/08/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
06/09/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17