4
Owl
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 106
Santa Anita · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 50/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -18.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |