Pokerknightatvees
4yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 8 · OR 99
Santa Anita · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/11 | 98% | 71% | -0.27 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 71% | -0.24 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 82% | -0.12 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |