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Captain Cairney

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 2 · OR 69

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Compare Before You Bet Handicap · 2m 102y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Front runner who arrives on the up, winning over Leicester and here (1¾m) in July/August and only narrowly denied the hat-trick at Ffos Las (1¾m) 12 days ago. Another bold show is likely now tackling 2m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 06/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 59 · 1m2f Std 135 · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 59 par6/116OR 595 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 61 · 1m1f104y Std 122 · below its mark24/11/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 60 par8/066OR 606 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m3f209y Goo 128 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Chepstow 08/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m4f GF 135 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 60 par8/076OR 605 @ Salisbury 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 61 · 1m4f5y Goo 121 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Leicester 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 61 · 1m3f179y Goo 131 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 61 par29/076OR 616 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 62 · 1m6f21y Std 130 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 62 par4 @ Ffos Las 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m6f Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 67 par21/094OR 67projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Ffos Las42nd1st+1
2026-08-27Southwell61st2nd−1
2026-07-29Leicester61st2nd−1
2026-07-25Salisbury55th5th0
2026-07-08Chepstow62nd3rd−1
2026-06-29Ffos Las67th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1129/0629/0721/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/11/20252nd4/696%80%-0.16
24/11/20256th10/382%0%-0.82
08/06/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
29/06/20267th9/276%14%-0.62
08/07/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
25/07/20265th7/163%20%-0.43
29/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
27/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
21/09/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72