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6

Saxophonic

3yo Gelding · 8-4 · Draw 1 · OR 56

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Compare Before You Bet Handicap · 2m 102y

#6

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looked exposed as modest at up to 1½m but different proposition stepped up to 1¾m at Wolverhampton 18 days ago, comfortably seeing off 8 rivals. Raised 6 lb but likely has more to offer as a stayer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength25%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f212y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/0945 @ Wolverhampton 08/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 1334 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS27/1246 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m2f42y Std 131 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m3f219y Sta 130 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 58 par30/046OR 586 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 56 · 1m3f99y GF 131 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m3f23y Std 135 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 54 par23/076OR 546 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m3f209y Gd 126 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 50 · 1m5f219y Std 122 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 50 par15/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton61st2nd−1
2026-08-21Ffos Las64th5th−1
2026-07-23Southwell64th5th−1
2026-05-23Windsor66th7th−1
2026-04-30Kempton68th9th−1
2026-02-04Newcastle63rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/094/0223/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20258th7/282%13%-0.69
08/12/20258th14/126%36%+0.10
27/12/202510th50/10%18%+0.18
04/02/20263rd11/271%75%+0.04
30/04/20268th4/179%13%-0.66
23/05/20266th16/116%62%+0.46
23/07/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
21/08/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
15/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16