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4

Agitator

2yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 8 · OR 74

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Best Betting Offers Nursery · 1m 13y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Left debut well behind to open his account in 12-runner maiden at Windsor (6f) in May. Well held at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood on next 2 starts but back on track with sights lowered when staying-on third over 1m at Leicester 12 days. First-time blinkers replace cheekpieces.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 10.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 6f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS15/0525 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f12y GF 13023/0551 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 24th of 25 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0612 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 76 par30/072OR 765 @ Leicester 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 74 · 1m53y Goo 135 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 74 par21/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Leicester53rd3rd0
2026-07-30Goodwood214th10th+3
2026-06-17Royal Ascot124th19th+4
2026-05-23Windsor51st1st0
2026-05-15Newmarket210th6th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0523/0517/0630/0721/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength72%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/202610th14/126%25%-0.01
23/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
17/06/202624th125/10%4%+0.04
30/07/202614th66/10%24%+0.24
21/09/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08