11
Dovey Moon
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 5 · OR 72
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 13y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 61/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 82% | +0.40 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 12/06/2026 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 24% | +0.08 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 21/09/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |