4
Kalamunda
6yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 12 · OR 78
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 13y
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Yarmouth | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Yarmouth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Sandown | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 75/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 01/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |
| 03/07/2025 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 07/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 21/09/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.45 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |