6
Nakaaha
4yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 9 · OR 77
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 13y
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Chepstow | 2 | 16th | 14th | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bath | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 10-13 · tight 79/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/07/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 31/08/2026 | 16th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |