2
Nostrum
6yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 1 · OR 80
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 13y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newmarket | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 7-13 · tight 66/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 25/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 11/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/08/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 30/08/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 30/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |