Siwa Oasis
3yo Colt · 9-6 · Draw 8 · OR 77
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 13y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Leicester | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -27.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |