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3

Vincent Rocks

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 10 · OR 79

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 13y

#6

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Posted good second at Kempton on final outing for Hugo Palmer in July and backed that up with creditable fifth at Newcastle (1m) on first run for new yard 3 weeks later. Not in same form back at Kempton and over this C&D since, though. Has something to prove for now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 17/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m13y Std 13517/0854 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 86 · 1m2f Goo 136 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 86 par2 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 20th of 22 · OR 86 · 1m Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 86 par28/032OR 864 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 84 · 1m6y Goo 134 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m2f70y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 83 par13/063OR 834 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 82 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 84 · 1m5y Sta 141 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 84 par25/074OR 842 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 83 · 1m Sta 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Southwell 22/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 81 · 1m13y Std 136 · below its mark22/09/2026 · OR 81 par22/094OR 81projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Southwell49th9th0
2026-09-05Kempton211th9th+2
2026-07-25Newcastle45th5th0
2026-07-02Kempton42nd2nd0
2026-06-13Chester310th9th+1
2026-04-29Pontefract43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0829/0425/0722/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength21%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
19/09/20259th10/382%27%-0.55
28/03/202620th11/142%10%-0.33
29/04/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
13/06/202610th17/255%0%-0.55
02/07/20262nd7/163%89%+0.26
25/07/20265th14/126%69%+0.43
05/09/202611th40/10%23%+0.23
22/09/20269th16/116%0%-0.16