IvyArcIvyArc
5

Wid

3yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 3 · OR 80

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 13y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

76%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Settled better than previously when opening her account in 6-runner novice at Carlisle (1m, firm) in July and backed it up with a promising fourth of 14 in 1m Glorious Goodwood handicap 19 days later, caught further back than ideal. One to keep on side.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS12/0924 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f80y Gd 12823/0644 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f173y Goo 1259/0743 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 80 · 1m Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 80 par28/073OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Goodwood34th3rd+1
2026-07-09Carlisle41st1st0
2026-06-23Ffos Las42nd2nd0
2025-09-12Doncaster27th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0923/069/0728/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +22.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20257th5/174%33%-0.40
23/06/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
09/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
28/07/20264th11/142%77%+0.35