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Ebt's Warrior

2yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 10

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk New Customer Offers Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

56%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Earthlight colt who is related to a host of useful winners, but has shaped as if in need of experience on both outings to date and likely has nurseries on the agenda after this qualifying run.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Leicester 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 7f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/0833 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS27/083projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Southwell35th4th+1
2026-08-09Leicester33rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0827/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +34.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20263rd25/10%0%0.00
27/08/20265th16/116%50%+0.34