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2

Fully Stocked

2yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 7 · OR 76

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk New Customer Offers Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In frame all 3 starts in maidens, getting back on track when 3 lengths third of 10 to Note To Self at Lingfield on latest. Should be suited by step up to 7f but needs to find some improvement if he's to open his account here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 13329/0645 @ Nottingham 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 13318/0754 @ Lingfield 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 76 · 6f1y Std 133 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 76 par10/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Lingfield43rd3rd0
2026-07-18Nottingham54th5th−1
2026-06-29Kempton42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0618/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 24/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -34.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/06/20262nd18/15%89%+0.84
18/07/20264th7/491%25%-0.66
10/09/20263rd7/163%78%+0.15