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4

Notimetotakeoff

2yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 5

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk New Customer Offers Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped up on debut effort when 6½ lengths third of 9 to Pure Concept in novice at Kempton last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 04/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 7f Sta 1334/0944 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m Sta 13323/094projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Kempton43rd3rd0
2026-09-04Kempton411th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0923/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +58.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/202611th22/10%17%+0.17
23/09/20263rd50/10%75%+0.75