3
Secret Message
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 8
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Free Bet Offers Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y
#11
Rank
Odds
150/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 10.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kempton | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Market Rasen | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -20.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 09/09/2026 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |