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8

Skewsby

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 6 · OR 74

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Free Bet Offers Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Continued a theme of run-to-run progression when 1¼ lengths second of 8 to Lady Vega in novice at Redcar last month, though had the run of the race that day and this looks a stronger race. Makes all-weather debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 13326/0844 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 7f1y Goo 13111/0944 @ Redcar 23/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f Gd 13323/094projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Redcar42nd2nd0
2026-09-11Chester43rd3rd0
2026-08-26Catterick47th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0811/0923/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +35.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/08/20267th66/10%14%+0.14
11/09/20263rd50/10%33%+0.33
23/09/20262nd33/10%86%+0.86