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7

Horace Wallace

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 11 · OR 72

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Every Bookie Compared Handicap · 6f 16y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

2-2 since visored, namely 6f handicaps on all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton last month. Likely to go well on the hat-trick bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 08/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 6f20y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/1244 @ Wolverhampton 02/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 6f20y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 75 · 6f1y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 75 par27/022OR 755 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 73 · 5f21y Std 133 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 71 · 6f6y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 71 par17/054OR 715 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 68 · 7f50y Sft 133 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 66 · 6f212y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 66 par8/085OR 666 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 6f1y Std 136 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 69 · 6f20y Std 132 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 69 par18/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton51st1st0
2026-09-01Lingfield61st2nd−1
2026-08-08Haydock54th4th0
2026-06-20Ayr54th4th0
2026-05-17Hamilton412th11th+1
2026-03-13Wolverhampton57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1213/038/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/20253rd4/179%71%-0.08
02/02/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
27/02/20268th10/147%36%-0.11
13/03/20267th9/488%25%-0.63
17/05/202612th33/10%15%+0.15
20/06/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
08/08/20264th14/126%57%+0.31
01/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
18/09/20261st11/271%100%+0.29