8
Inca Heights
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 4 · OR 72
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Every Bookie Compared Handicap · 6f 16y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength79%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Salisbury | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 3 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Redcar | 1 | 13th | 8th | +4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Doncaster | 2 | 12th | 8th | +3 |
| 2025-07-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 13-13 · tight 89/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 30/04/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 11/09/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 04/10/2025 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/05/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |