Jenever
7yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 9 · OR 71
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Every Bookie Compared Handicap · 6f 16y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Nottingham | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 68% | +0.68 |
| 14/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 13/09/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 47% | +0.10 |