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13

Lazzar

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 61

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Every Bookie Compared Handicap · 6f 16y

#11

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 4 times on all-weather for Richard Hughes last season but operating below his best for current yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 77 · 6f12y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 77 par4/054OR 774 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 75 · 5f16y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f160y Gd 135 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 73 par5/065OR 735 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Lingfield 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 71 · 4f217y Goo 131 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 71 par27/065OR 715 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 71 · 4f217y GF 136 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Yarmouth 14/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 69 · 5f42y GF 135 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 69 par14/085OR 695 @ Lingfield 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 66 · 5f6y Std 129 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Sandown 11/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f10y Sft 128 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 64 par11/095OR 64projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Sandown55th5th0
2026-08-27Lingfield54th4th0
2026-08-14Yarmouth56th6th0
2026-07-25Lingfield54th4th0
2026-06-27Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-06-09Salisbury54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/059/0614/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/202610th18/15%10%+0.05
21/05/20266th20/10%0%0.00
05/06/20269th22/10%11%+0.11
09/06/20264th28/10%67%+0.67
27/06/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
25/07/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
14/08/20266th28/10%0%0.00
27/08/20264th12/137%40%+0.03
11/09/20265th33/10%50%+0.50