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5

Rascal Recknell

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 1 · OR 72

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Every Bookie Compared Handicap · 6f 16y

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful on 2 of his 4 starts for this yard last season but it's hard to derive much encouragement from his 3 outings this year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 10/10/2024 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 73 · 7f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/10/2024 · OR 73 par10/104OR 735 @ Wolverhampton 21/10/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 70 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark21/10/2024 · OR 70 par5 @ Doncaster 27/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 68 · 7f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark27/06/2025 · OR 68 par27/065OR 685 @ Haydock 08/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 70 · 6f212y Gd 130 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Chelmsford City 11/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 70 · 7f Std 135 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 70 par11/095OR 704 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 7f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 76 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 22 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 78 par23/054OR 784 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 77 · 6f20y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 75 · 7f127y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 75 par12/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester48th7th+1
2026-07-14Wolverhampton410th9th+1
2026-05-23York416th15th+1
2025-10-09Chelmsford City42nd1st+1
2025-09-11Chelmsford City51st1st0
2025-08-08Haydock56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/108/0823/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength23%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20249th13/266%11%-0.55
21/10/20248th7/163%30%-0.33
27/06/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
08/08/20256th15/261%50%-0.11
11/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
09/10/20252nd11/486%83%-0.02
23/05/202616th20/10%29%+0.29
14/07/202610th25/10%0%0.00
12/09/20268th25/10%0%0.00