Guernsey Angel
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 3 · OR 62
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap · 4f 214y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Salisbury | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Windsor | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 13/08/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 10% | -0.56 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 24/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |