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4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 5 · OR 60

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap · 4f 214y

#9

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual 5f winner on turf. Out of form of late but has dropped below last winning mark for yard back among the winners. Needs to prove his effectiveness on this surface, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 67 · 6f16y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/03/2026 · OR 67 par10/035OR 675 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 63 · 5f7y Gd 134 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 63 par3/056OR 635 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 66 · 5f7y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 66 · 5f7y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 66 par10/065OR 665 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 140 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 65 par8/086OR 656 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 63 · 5f212y Goo 139 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 63 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 63 par17/095OR 63projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr511th10th+1
2026-09-08Catterick65th5th0
2026-08-08Ayr610th10th0
2026-07-13Ayr53rd2nd+1
2026-06-10Hamilton57th6th+1
2026-06-04Hamilton53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/034/068/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength1%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/03/202610th20/10%10%+0.10
21/04/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
03/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
04/06/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
10/06/20267th9/488%0%-0.88
13/07/20263rd12/137%80%+0.43
08/08/202610th9/276%18%-0.58
08/09/20265th9/153%50%-0.03
17/09/202611th10/147%47%0.00