IvyArcIvyArc
7

Marra Donna

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 2 · OR 58

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap · 4f 214y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has gone close in a few all-weather handicaps this year and quickly got back to form when 2 lengths third of 6 to Silky Robin at Brighton in June. Sold for 5,000 gns since and has joined a yard that has enjoyed success with recruits from other stables. Market will prove informative.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 08/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 7f1y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/1256 @ Wolverhampton 06/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 63 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Southwell 11/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 63 · 6f16y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 63 par11/025OR 635 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 64 · 6f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 63 · 5f6y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 63 par27/035OR 636 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 63 · 6f16y Std 133 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 63 · 6f12y Goo 133 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 63 par18/056OR 636 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 62 · 6f Sft 133 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Brighton 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 60 · 5f60y Goo 131 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 60 par22/066OR 60projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-22Brighton63rd3rd0
2026-06-09Salisbury69th9th0
2026-05-18Windsor65th5th0
2026-04-30Southwell64th4th0
2026-03-27Lingfield52nd1st+1
2026-03-05Newcastle53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/125/0318/0522/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength64%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/20259th7/163%27%-0.36
06/02/20263rd1/195%80%-0.15
11/02/20263rd13/891%50%-0.41
05/03/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
27/03/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
30/04/20264th6/492%70%-0.22
18/05/20265th13/266%64%-0.02
09/06/20269th8/158%20%-0.38
22/06/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26