Midnight Lir
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 9 · OR 55
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap · 4f 214y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Redcar | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 8% | -0.29 |
| 03/05/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 27% | -0.28 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 27% | -0.41 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |