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6

Opal Storm

6yo Mare · 9-4 · Draw 7 · OR 59

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap · 4f 214y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Third win of a productive campaign when landing a big-field sprint at Ayr (5f, soft) last month. Seemed to excel herself in face of stiff task in conditions stakes at Beverley last time. Back in more realistic company here but has yet to win off a mark this high.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 55 · 5f7y Gd 126 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 55 par3/056OR 556 @ Beverley 14/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 55 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Beverley 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 55 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 55 par20/076OR 555 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 53 · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 53 par5 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 57 · 5f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 57 par13/085OR 576 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 55 · 5f1y Goo 135 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 55 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 55 par9/096OR 555 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 55 · 5f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 55 par2 @ Beverley 22/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 54 · 5f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 54 par22/092OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Beverley25th0th+4
2026-09-17Ayr51st0th+1
2026-09-09Carlisle66th6th0
2026-08-24Musselburgh64th4th0
2026-08-13Beverley59th8th+1
2026-07-28Beverley58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0528/079/0922/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/202612th17/255%0%-0.55
14/07/20268th22/10%22%+0.22
20/07/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
28/07/20268th17/255%13%-0.43
13/08/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
24/08/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
09/09/20266th16/116%55%+0.39
17/09/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
22/09/20265th200/10%20%+0.20