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Popular Dream

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 55

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap · 4f 214y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 4-time C&D winner, the latest from an 8 lb higher mark in January. Has been more miss than hit since, but is entitled to be sharper for the outing after returning from 4-month break last time and every chance he could get this run to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 06/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 63 · 4f214y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 63 par6/015OR 635 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 63 · 4f214y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ Southwell 17/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 67 · 4f214y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 67 par17/014OR 675 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 4f214y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Wolverhampton 27/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 65 · 5f21y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 65 par27/025OR 655 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 63 · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 61 · 4f214y Std 131 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 61 par28/036OR 615 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 59 · 4f214y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 57 · 4f214y Std 130 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 57 par26/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Southwell64th4th0
2026-05-21Southwell59th8th+1
2026-03-28Southwell68th8th0
2026-03-10Southwell56th5th+1
2026-02-27Wolverhampton56th5th+1
2026-02-07Southwell56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/017/0228/0326/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength87%

Delivery trend +8.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/01/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
13/01/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
17/01/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
07/02/20266th6/168%38%-0.31
27/02/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
10/03/20266th7/163%55%-0.09
28/03/20268th5/174%30%-0.44
21/05/20269th22/10%11%+0.11
26/09/20264th22/10%63%+0.63