South Parade
5yo Mare · 9-9 · Draw 10 · OR 64
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap · 4f 214y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |