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5

Toptime

8yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 1 · OR 60

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap · 4f 214y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enthusiastic type who returned to winning ways at Nottingham (5f) in June and ran well when placed on his next 2 starts, including over 6f at this track in August. Ran below form last time, but has a good draw and no surprise were he to put up a much better showing back returned to this course.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 10/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 59 · 5f143y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 59 par10/075OR 596 @ Nottingham 07/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 56 · 5f8y Goo 134 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 56 par6 @ Pontefract 06/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 59 · 5f3y Sft 129 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 59 par6/106OR 596 @ Southwell 31/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 4f214y Std 129 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 59 par6 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 133 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 58 par5/066OR 586 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 58 · 5f8y Sft 134 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Beverley 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 61 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 61 par20/076OR 616 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 61 · 6f16y Std 136 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 61 · 5f GS 134 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 61 par8/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester67th7th0
2026-08-16Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-07-20Beverley63rd3rd0
2026-06-11Nottingham61st1st0
2026-06-05Thirsk63rd3rd0
2025-10-31Southwell64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0731/1020/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 86/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20258th9/153%13%-0.40
07/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
06/10/202510th14/126%18%-0.08
31/10/20254th15/261%67%+0.06
05/06/20263rd12/137%82%+0.45
11/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
20/07/20263rd11/142%78%+0.36
16/08/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
08/09/20267th12/137%40%+0.03