Astrid

3yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 4 · OR 65

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Betting Sites Reviewed Fillies' Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARK

Move▼1

Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C4.0

Today: 5

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Lingfield	3	2nd	0th	+2	5.0
2026-08-18	Wolverhampton	4	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-04-20	Newcastle	5	7th	7th	0	3.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +38.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/04/2026	7th	7/1	63%	45%	-0.18
18/08/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	60%	+0.60
12/09/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	75%	+0.59