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4

Blue Tulip

3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 3 · OR 58

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Betting Sites Reviewed Fillies' Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Overcame an interrupted passage when opening her account in handicap at Wolverhampton (1½m) in July. Bounced back from below-par effort when 5½ lengths second of 6 to Edwardtheninth in C&D handicap last time. Cheekpieces removed. One to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m13y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS21/0543 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 1m2f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0634 @ Ffos Las 17/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS17/0646 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m4f51y Std 128 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 55 par14/076OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f51y Std 129 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 54 par30/076OR 545 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 59 · 1m4f10y Goo 124 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 59 par15/085OR 596 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 58 · 1m6f21y Std 133 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 58 par31/086OR 58projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell62nd3rd−1
2026-08-15Ripon53rd3rd0
2026-07-30Wolverhampton61st2nd−1
2026-07-14Wolverhampton66th7th−1
2026-06-17Ffos Las46th5th+1
2026-06-04Lingfield35th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0514/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 56/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -9.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20268th100/10%30%+0.30
04/06/20265th100/10%67%+0.67
17/06/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
14/07/20266th22/10%44%+0.44
30/07/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
15/08/20263rd7/282%33%-0.48
31/08/20262nd6/492%80%-0.12