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4yo Filly · 10-2 · Draw 2 · OR 66

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Betting Sites Reviewed Fillies' Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/4

Win Prob

27%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark when winning 6-runner 16.5f handicap at Wolverhampton last time by 1¼ lengths from Niffler. Up 5 lb but still unexposed as a stayer and likely to make another bold bid with useful apprentice taking over.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS28/0433 @ Nottingham 19/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f50y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS19/0533 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m2f Std 141 · HIGHER CLASS4/0636 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m5f219y Std 156 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 60 par21/076OR 606 @ Lingfield 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 63 · 1m5f Std 142 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 63 par8/086OR 635 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 62 · 2m32y Hvy 134 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 62 par30/085OR 626 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 2m120y Std 138 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 61 par18/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton61st2nd−1
2026-08-30Beverley56th6th0
2026-08-08Lingfield63rd4th−1
2026-07-21Wolverhampton62nd3rd−1
2026-06-04Lingfield39th7th+2
2026-05-19Nottingham37th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0421/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 56/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength63%

Delivery trend -11.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
19/05/20267th125/10%33%+0.33
04/06/20269th200/10%33%+0.33
21/07/20262nd9/153%90%+0.37
08/08/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
30/08/20266th9/488%17%-0.71
18/09/20261st7/282%100%+0.18