2
Thankyou Baroness
5yo Mare · 10-1 · Draw 5 · OR 65
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Betting Sites Reviewed Fillies' Handicap · 1m 6f 21y
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength67%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Lingfield | 2 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-09-17 | Yarmouth | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Salisbury | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-06-28 | Doncaster | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 4-5 · tight 81/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2024 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 04/11/2024 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 17/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/01/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/09/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |