3
Cost Of War
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +9.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2024 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 29% | -0.60 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |