IvyArcIvyArc
8

Marshal

4yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 8 · OR 93

Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 76 · 1m Fas 120 · beat its mark01/10/2024 · OR 76 par1/10C6OR 76C6 @ Fair Grounds 20/01/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 76 · 1m110y Gd 120 · below its mark20/01/2025 · OR 76 parC6 @ Turfway Park 19/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 81 · 1m110y 121 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 81 par19/12C6OR 81C6 @ Turfway Park 22/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 84 · 1m 122 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 84 parC9 @ Turfway Park 11/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 83 · 1m Fas 126 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 83 par11/02C9OR 83C8 @ Turfway Park 18/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 88 · 1m 125 · below its mark18/03/2026 · OR 88 parC6 @ Woodbine 19/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 92 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 92 par19/04C6OR 92C6 @ Woodbine 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 92 · 7f 122 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 92 parC6 @ Woodbine 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 7f Fas 122 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 92 par30/08C6OR 92projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Woodbine?1st1st0
2026-05-02Woodbine?2nd2nd0
2026-04-19Woodbine?3rd3rd0
2026-03-18Turfway Park?5th7th−2
2026-02-11Turfway Park?1st5th−3
2026-01-22Turfway Park?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1022/0119/0430/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20243rd2/189%67%-0.23
20/01/20258th14/126%36%+0.10
19/12/20253rd16/116%80%+0.64
22/01/20264th20/10%67%+0.67
11/02/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
18/03/20265th7/491%60%-0.31
19/04/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27
02/05/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
30/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16